Air Transport in Africa drives economic growth

Africa

Air transport supports 7.7 million jobs and $63 billion in African economic activity. That is 2.2% of all employment and 2.7% of all GDP in African countries in 2018.

Every person employed by the aviation sector directly, and in aviation enabled tourism, supported another 16.5 jobs elsewhere in Africa. Similarly, $6 of economic activity was supported elsewhere in Africa for every $1 created by the air transport sector.

In Africa the aviation sector employed over 500,000 people directly in 2018. Analysis of these workers suggests:

  • 252,000 of those people (57% of the total) were employed by airlines or handling agents in roles such as flight crew, check-in staff, maintenance crew, or head office staff

  • 45,000 (10%) had jobs with airport operators such as airport management, maintenance, and security

  • 112,000 (25%) worked on-site in airports in retails outlets, restaurants, and hotels

  • 17,000 (4%) were employed in civil aircraft manufacturing, including systems, components, airframes, and engines

  • 13,000 (3%) worked for air navigation service providers in jobs like air traffic control and engineering

Airlines, airport operators, retailers and other on-site businesses, as well as air navigation services and civil aircraft manufacturers all contribute to GDP in Africa. In 2018, the operations of these businesses generated $9 billion directly to GDP.

The aviation sector’s spending with suppliers is estimated to have supported a further 500,000 jobs and a $5.5 billion contribution to GDP. In addition, spending by those employed in the aviation sector and its supply chain supported 333,000 more jobs and a $4 billion contribution to Africa’s GDP.

Air travel also facilitates a substantial amount of tourism in Africa. This stimulates still more economic activity, as tourists spend their money in restaurants, hotels, shops, tour operators, and on other consumer goods and services. In 2018, spending by foreign visitors who flew to African countries supported an estimated 6.5 million jobs and contributed $44 billion to GDP.

African Investment - Immense Opportunities for those who seek to understand the market.

Article by : Tarek Sultan Al Essa

Chief Executive Officer and Vice-Chairman, Board of Agility, Kuwait

The conversation about Africa is shifting from one of “deficits” and “gaps” to one about opportunities, prospects, ventures and creativity. That’s not news to companies that have paid close attention to the continent and invested there. The fast growing youth population, the urbanization expected to drive over 50% of Africans to cities by 2050, and Africa’s formalizing economy are all well known. These trends and other developments have driven a half century or more of growth in Africa, and will continue to do so.

It’s important to acknowledge that Africa tests an investor’s patience. Time horizons and return models that fit other markets don’t always work in there. Even the most experienced, sophisticated companies can be forced to recalibrate, as Nestlé did last year when it announced a 15% cut in its workforce across 21 African countries.

Deficits remain. What’s important is that investors now realize there is money to be made for those bold enough to help close the gaps. As that takes place, the promise of greater prosperity for Africans and African businesses will be realized. Why is it a good time to invest?

1. Africa needs ‘connectors’

Missing across much of sub-Saharan Africa are the roads, rails, ports, airports, power grids and IT backbone needed to lift African economies. This lack of infrastructure hinders the growth of imports, exports, and regional business.

Companies that can connect Africans and markets can prosper. Sub-Saharan Africa is plagued by power outages – almost 700 hours a year on average – sapping productivity, adding cost and leaving businesses captive to back-up and alternative power options. Massive investment is leading to major upgrades and expansion at African ports and airports, but much of Africa’s growth potential depends on in-country and intra-African road, rail and air connections.

Roads and rail lines are sparse, decrepit and over-burdened. A lack of aviation agreements has limited intra-African air connections. Africa’s lack of efficient storage and distribution infrastructure hinders businesses, entrepreneurs and farmers. Up to 50% of African fruit and vegetables spoil before reaching markets.

There’s a soft infrastructure deficit, as well. Outside of South Africa, the data and information critical to decision-making by businesses is missing or hard to obtain – credit and risk information, market data, consumption patterns, you name it. Lessons from Dubai and Singapore tell us that once an infrastructure race is on in a rapidly expanding market, being the first-mover is a significant advantage for investors.

2. African trade barriers are falling and intra-African trade holds enormous potential

With the 54-nation Continental Free Trade Area – Africa’s own mega-trade deal – even the smallest African economies could see a lift. If duties are lowered and incentives introduced, manufacturers could see benefit from setting up production and assembly operations in multiple African countries. That could lead to development in electronics, machinery, chemicals, textile production and processed foods.

As a first step, free trade between and within the African economic blocs would make a huge difference. Africa’s share of global trade – a meager 3% – can only increase if the continent’s commodity and consumption-led economies begin to produce a broad array of goods for home markets and export.

And an increase in local beneficiation in the commodities sector could be a driver of growth – processing local commodities (such as minerals, coffee, cotton) in country rather than exporting them in raw form. That said, it will continue to be a challenge for regions with poor power and infrastructure to compete as global manufacturers.

3. Customers are changing

With the growth of Africa’s middle class, we’re seeing development of new expectations. Educated, urban professionals are young, brand-aware and sophisticated in terms of their consumption. Retailers and consumer brands want to anticipate and drive buying preferences in fashion, home and lifestyle products, but they know they need international standard supply chains if they are to meet demand. The largest economic forces in Africa are small to medium enterprises, working to meet this new demand and competing with global brands.

4. Digital transformation

Africa leads the world in mobile adoption, which continues to offer the biggest cross-sectoral economic opportunities. Mobile payment networks, pioneered in East Africa, opened the wired, global economy to poor, unbanked city and rural dwellers. Companies such as Novartis are using mobile communications to manage their supply chain; Olam has used mobile to reach out to new African suppliers and farmers. These mobile initiatives have achieved huge successes.

To illustrate: In 2014, Ethiopia set up a telephone hotline allowing small farmers immediate access to advice from agronomists, with over 3 million calls done in the first six months of the pilot programme. Mobile is the area where Africa has pushed beyond the boundaries in the developed world, and African tech incubators are pushing to innovate. So what’s next?

5. Africa is diversifying

African economies are finally beginning to diversify beyond commodities, though this is still in the early stages. Africa is seeing a returning diaspora that recognizes the potential and opportunities in their own countries. This population supports local economic growth with their skills and talent, by acting as “first movers”, investing back in their communities.

At the same time, African countries are beginning to place bets on non-commodity areas where they can be competitive. And they are packaging themselves to appeal to a broader set of investors. Recognizing they can no longer count on growing investment from China, every country now has what are called “Investment Promotion Agencies”, which act as one-stop shops for investors, assisting with registration, taxes, and other steps to establish companies locally.

6. Africa can lead in sustainable development

In energy, technology, supply chain design and other areas, Africa has the ability to look at what works elsewhere then fashion its own answers. It can openly embrace new technology and ideas, with no historical imprint from which to break free. It can develop flexible fuel grids that generate power with a mix of abundant wind, solar, hydro and bio energy, alongside conventional fuels such as oil and gas, which are also abundant. Nowhere on Earth is there as much unused or poorly used arable land, so look for big agricultural breakthroughs and productivity gains in food production in Africa.

Business leaders are hungry for vibrant new markets and consumers know the reality: globalization means there are too few remaining frontiers. As the developed world matures, and becomes increasingly difficult to trade in as a result of factors from legislation to terrorism, opportunities for corporate growth are limited. There are too few places where entrepreneurs and businesses with ideas and an appetite for risk can bring value and find long-term growth if they are persistent, creative and determined. But there’s something else they know: Africa is still such a place.

Africa's Tech Sector is amongst fastest Growing in the World. Global Investors and Tech firms should take note.

Reflecting Africa’s Tech Sector’s Evolution

Top 10 News / May 1, 2022 / 1 minute of reading / By Editor

For the second year in a row, The Africa Report and Jeune Afrique are publishing an exclusive ranking of the 50 people that are leading the continent’s digital revolution. The number of investors on the continent that specialise in financing the digital sector is increasing each year. The panel selected 10 investors and seed-fund operators that were active over the 2021-2022 period, considering the number of operations, the size of their funds, the type of the projects financed and the management teams. Finally, because nothing would be possible without them, the list established a ranking of 10 ‘trend setters’, a broad category that includes regulators, public agency bosses, incubators, lobbyists and influencers. In total, there were 216 names in our database for these three selections. The editors then studied each profile to compile the 2022 ranking of our top 50 digital champions.

SOURCE: THE AFRICA REPORT

Ukraine War causing Global Food Insecurity -reinforces the need to develop local food supply chains with resilient crops developed to grow in local conditions

Nairobi — VOA Report

U.S. government officials warn that many African countries will continue to face shortages and high food prices as long as Russia continues to wage war against Ukraine, from which Africa gets much of its wheat and cooking oil.

Speaking to journalists online Tuesday, the U.S. representative to U.N. agencies in Rome, Cindy McCain, said Ukraine is the world's breadbasket, and the attack on its land and people is raising hunger around the globe.

“The Food and Agricultural Organization estimates that as many as 13 million more people worldwide will be pushed into food insecurity as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The truth of the matter is Putin’s war forces us to take from the hungry to feed the starving. As long as Russia continues its brutal campaign, innocent people are going to pay the price,” she said.

Ukraine annually exports 40% of its wheat and corn to Africa. The World Food Program feeds 138 million people in 80 countries, including Ethiopia and Nigeria, with the grain it gets from the European country.

With Ukrainian supplies cut off, food prices are on the rise across Africa. Meanwhile, increasing energy costs have driven up prices for fertilizers such as phosphate used in food production.

Jim Barnhart, assistant to the administrator for USAID’s Bureau for Resilience and Food Security, says the high cost of living will make life difficult for more families in Africa.

“Reduced food supplies and subsequent price increases in these commodities make it harder for farmers in Zambia to access inputs they need to plant their crops, for families in Malawi to buy nutritious food for their children. So, if that is not mitigated, these price increases could result in significant increases in global poverty, hunger and malnutrition, particularly in regions like sub-Saharan Africa,” he said.

The International Committee for the Red Cross says more than 346 million Africans face a food security crisis, making families skip meals every day.

The ICRC says it will ramp up its operations in 10 countries to combat the food shortages.

The head of ICRC’s global operations, Dominik Stillhart, says the war in Ukraine has impacted their humanitarian work.

“The other impact, which is more indirect, is that the rise in food and fuel prices, as well as supply chains that are seriously affected by the situation in Ukraine, they have an effect on our own capacity to scale up. Lead times are going to be longer, for instance, (and) food imports, and that’s also why we are increasingly resorting to cash transfers to support people in various countries in which we are operating,” he said.

Persistent drought, poor rains in some parts of Africa and conflicts have also exacerbated Africa's food situation.

The Evolution of U.S. Defense Posture in North and West Africa https://www.csis.org/analysis/evolution-us-defense-posture-north-and-west-africa

The Evolution of U.S. Defense Posture in North and West Africa

Courtesy of www.csis.org

By Alice Hunt Friend and Jamie D. Wise AUGUST 2018

THE ISSUE

A review of U.S. defense posture in North and West Africa since 2012 reveals that changes have been crisis-driven and constrained by AFRICOM’s persistent lack of resourcing, rather than being informed by strategic objectives.

Proposals being considered at the Defense Department to drastically reduce troop levels in Africa may depart from this pattern, while leaving the United States no better prepared to face emerging security threats in the region.

The United States should scale its resourcing to meet its policy objectives, but these objectives should themselves be tailored to realistic threat assessments. hat is the U.S. military presence in North and West Africa, and

how did it evolve? The Defense Department is considering adjustments to its North and West Africa posture in response to a fatal ambush on a U.S.

special operations forces team in Niger last fall.1 Without some historical context, it is difficult to assess if these adjustments reflect substantial changes in U.S. presence, and how they might affect U.S. Africa policy in the future. This brief provides such context.

POSTURE FACTORS IN AFRICA

Defense posture has been described as a mix of “forces, footprint, and agreements.”2 In other words, posture is the sum of the diplomatic permissions to conduct military activities, the physical facilities, and the DoD personnel and military platforms either stationed or temporarily assigned to a defined geographic area. Adjustments to forces can

be easier to make than either installations or access agreements, although the three are often interdependent.

Three major factors affect posture choices: (1) U.S. strategic objectives; (2) reliability of access in terms of diplomatic relations and political stability; and (3) availability
of personnel, assets, and other resources. Officials at

the Pentagon, the State Department, and the relevant combatant commands must periodically assess these factors to ensure a rational fit between posture constraints and policy ambitions.

In the Africa area of operations, conserving resources
is the driving consideration among these three factors. Policymakers and defense planners tend to think of force allocations to Africa as a drain on resources from other theatres rather than as a strategic investment. AFRICOM does not have assigned forces, African hosts generally
are politically sensitive to any U.S. military presence, and the costs of military construction can be high relative to other locations.

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CSIS BRIEFS

As of 2012, AFRICOM had one forward operating site in Djibouti, and a series of access locations across the continent, many of them considered austere, without exclusive-use facilities.3 The Sahara Desert forms a natural and enormous obstacle between much of the population centers in West Africa and locations in the European Command (EUCOM) area of operations, upon which AFRICOM depends heavily
in the event of a crisis. On a regular basis, the command frequently and temporarily borrows assets from other commanders. Personnel assigned to the continent are rotationally, rather than permanently, assigned.

Our review of the evolution of U.S. defense posture and presence in Africa over the past six years revealed a recurring pattern:

  • Step 1: Crisis is met with ad-hoc U.S. response.

  • Step 2: Policymakers, operators, and congressional

    actors recognize revealed posture gaps in AFRICOM.

  • Step 3: The United States makes modest adjustments, consistent with the principle of low-cost, light footprint approaches—largely including ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), regional operations, partner capacity-building, and special operations.

    This process unfolded in at least five major episodes
    over the past six years: the attack on the U.S. facilities in Benghazi, Libya; U.S. support to the French intervention in Mali; the brazen actions of Boko Haram; the battle for Sirte

in Libya; and the ambush of U.S. forces in Niger. The U.S. response to date to the 2017 ambush in Niger may signal a potential break from this script. These events, and the posture adjustments that followed, are described below.

CRISIS 1: ATTACK ON THE AMERICAN

FACILITIES IN BENGHAZI (2012)

On September 11, 2012, Libyan militants attacked the
U.S. Temporary Mission Facility in Benghazi, Libya. Although the U.S. mobilized surveillance aircraft, two Fleet Antiterrorism Security Team (FAST) platoons, and special operations forces from various sites to respond
to the situation, these units were not able to reach the facility in time to prevent the deaths of four U.S. citizens, including Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens.
4 The ensuing congressional investigations attributed the outcomes

in Benghazi to AFRICOM’s “lack of operational assets,”5 including no nearby forward-operating base, Marine Expeditionary Unit, or in-extremis force to engage in rapid crisis response.6

The Benghazi attacks revealed to a much wider
audience the paucity of defense assets in or dedicated
to North Africa specifically and AFRICOM generally. Under congressional and internal pressure to make commensurate adjustments, DoD worked to increase
its readiness to respond to “high risk, high threat” environments in Africa.
7 Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta detailed the department’s lessons-learned, which would serve as a blueprint for adjusting U.S. posture.8

First, the United States sought to
expand host nation capacity through train-and-equip assistance.
9 Second,
per congressional mandate, the United States deployed 1000 additional marines to the Marine Security Guard Program to enhance diplomatic security.
10 Third, DoD provided AFRICOM more capabilities by assigning it Special Purpose Marine Air- Ground Task Forces for Crisis Response and a Commander In-Extremis Force.11 AFRICOM also secured agreements

to share forces with other combatant commands and relocate ISR assets.12

Although the United States adjusted its posture to reduce its vulnerability to another Benghazi-like attack, AFRICOM continued to base primarily from Djibouti and Europe and rely on partnered forces.13 AFRICOM’s then-commander,

Aftermath of attack on U.S. consulate compound in Benghazi.

Gianluigi Geurcia/AFP/GettyImages

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General David Rodriguez, succinctly summarized the approach in 2014: “Our strategic posture and presence are premised on the concept of a tailored, flexible, light footprint that leverages and supports the posture and presence of partners and is supported by expeditionary infrastructure.”14

CRISIS 2: AL QAEDA IN THE ISLAMIC MAGHREB THREATEN MALI, FRANCE

INTERVENES (2012-2013)

In 2012, after a series of defeats at
the hands of a Tuareg rebels, the
Malian military launched a coup that overthrew the government. In the
resulting security vacuum, al Qaeda in
the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) increased
its control over the northern half of the country and began to expand southward toward the capital, Bamako. In January 2013, the French launched Operation Serval, a robust counterterrorism intervention

U.S. Air Force C17s transporting French soldiers and equipment as part of Operation Serval. Gereard Julien/AFP/Getty Images

in northern Mali, and requested U.S. assistance.15 The United States agreed to provide logistical support in the form of intelligence sharing, aerial refueling, and airlift.16 At the same time, defense officials repeatedly expressed U.S. unwillingness to insert ground forces into Mali.17

The situation in Mali led to calls for supplementing AFRICOM’s limited ISR assets and triggered an expansion in U.S. access and facilities for ISR in the region.18 To support the French mission, the United States began flying unmanned surveillance assets from Niger and sent 200 U.S. troops to the country to facilitate intelligence- sharing.19 In early 2013, reports indicated defense officials were considering expanding the U.S. presence in Niger
by building an airfield in Agadez to base ISR assets and monitor extremist elements in the region.
20 Plans for the construction of Niger Air Base 201, the second largest U.S. installation on the continent, materialized in 2014, and the base is set to be operational by 2019.21 As AFRICOM Spokesperson Samantha Reho explained, “The location in Agadez will improve U.S. Africa Command’s capability to facilitate intelligence-sharing that better supports Niger and other partner nations, such as Nigeria, Chad, Mali and other neighbors in the region and will improve our capability to respond to regional security issues.”22

CRISIS 3: THE CHIBOK SCHOOL

KIDNAPPINGS AND BOKO HARAM (2014)

In April of 2014, the Nigerian terrorist group Boko Haram conducted a mass kidnapping of over 200 Nigerian schoolgirls. The audacity of the attack and the wave of social media activism it inspired prompted another round of congressional inquiry into U.S. military capacity in
West Africa.
23 The immediate U.S. response was to send
an 18-member, multidisciplinary team to advise and assist the Nigerian government on locating and rescuing the girls.24 The United States also lent ISR capabilities to the mission, sending 80 troops to Chad in May 2014 to operate unmanned surveillance assets there and share intelligence with the Nigerians.
25 Shortly after the deployment, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel insisted “these are not boots on the ground,” signaling U.S. unwillingness to use force or take unilateral action on the continent.26

The global response to #BringBackOurGirls and the increasing lethality of Boko Haram prompted regional governments to take joint action, and the United States offered to help.27 In October 2015, the administration authorized another 300 troops to assist with ISR in Cameroon in the ongoing fight against Boko Haram.28

Nevertheless, by June 2014, AFRICOM had begun diverting its limited ISR assets from the mission in

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Aerial view of Chibok school after Boko Haram’s infamous raid.

Sunday Aghaeze/AFP/Getty Images

Nigeria to other areas on the continent, claiming “ISR is at a premium in Africa.”29 In 2015, AFRICOM Commander General David Rodriguez acknowledged his command was operating at only 13 percent of its requested ISR capacity and remained dependent on assets from EUCOM.30 As General Rodriguez told the Senate in March 2015, “With our requirements expanding faster than resources are increasing, we are utilizing innovative and creative ways to mitigate capability gaps.”31

CRISIS 4: THE BATTLE FOR SIRTE (2016)

After the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL) took control of Sirte in 2015, the United States reportedly stationed small teams of
special operators around Libya to cultivate local partnerships and gather intelligence.
32 U.S. involvement intensified after August 1, 2016, when the Government of National Accord (GNA) requested U.S. airstrikes to support its forces in
the battle to control Sirte.
33 The United States sent amphibious assault ships carrying Marine-piloted Harrier jets and SuperCobra helicopters to conduct the strikes in what became known as Operation Odyssey Lightning.34 After Libyan forces recaptured Sirte in December 2016, AFRICOM announced the completion of 495 precision airstrikes.35

The U.S. counter-ISIL strategy in Libya has been characterized by ISR support, partner capacity-

building through train-and-equip programs, and advise and assist missions by special forces.36 Although the Pentagon downplays the presence
of any ground forces, officials have indicated “a small number of U.S. forces” have participated in counter-ISIL operations from Libya.
37 Authorities from such efforts derive from train-and-equip programs under 10 USC 333 and advise and assist operations under 10 USC 127e.38 Reflecting the by, with, and through approach, DoD Spokesman Peter Cook said the strikes in Sirte were “consistent with our approach to combating ISIL by working with capable and motivated local forces.”39

The Battle of Sirte revealed the tension in U.S. policy between maintaining a small, secretive footprint and sustaining commitment to defeat transnational terror on the continent. Early on, the Pentagon insisted the operation would not consist of “boots on the ground,”40 typifying the emphasis on “low-visibility

operations”41 in Africa. Yet, statements by defense officials throughout Odyssey Lightning also expressed
the enduring nature of the U.S. military commitment
to defeating ISIL and acknowledged Libya would require “strategic patience.”
42 Despite their expulsion from Sirte, ISIL members continue to operate in remote inland areas, and concerns about an ISIL resurgence in Libya remain. In late 2016, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford indicated the United States would retain a posture in Africa conducive to a global counter-ISIL

Airstrike on ISIL positions in Sirte.

Fabio Bucciarello/AFP/Getty Images

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strategy.43 Since then, AFRICOM has announced that it has conducted several airstrikes against ISIL targets in Libya—and also against AQIM targets, illustrating the extent to which the campaigns against these two groups overlap geographically.44 At least one anonymous U.S. official source indicated the use of armed UAVs for such strikes.45 The campaign in Sirte, then, appears to have led to a persistent mission involving air assets. This implies a need for ongoing regional access for such platforms.

CRISIS 5: THE AMBUSH IN NIGER (2017)

In October of 2017, a joint U.S.-Nigerien mission was ambushed by militants from the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. Four U.S. servicemembers were killed, along with four Nigerien soldiers. The event prompted extended
media scrutiny and a series of internal DoD reviews, some of which have been released to the public. An AFRICOM investigation concluded that tactical and operational decisions, not posture gaps, led to the tragedy in Niger,
but also indicated that ground mobility, close air support, and ISR coverage were significant factors in the outcome and revealed a dependency on French and Nigerien quick reaction assets.
46

This indirect relationship with resources may partially explain why subsequent debates and decisions over posture adjustments have pointed to both investment and divestment choices. The commander of AFRICOM, General Thomas D. Waldhauser, recently stated the command began to arm drones operating out of Niamey in the wake of the

ambush and has made adjustments to reduce medical evacuation response times.47 While this limited expansion in capabilities reflects the U.S. response to earlier
crises,
The New York Times has reported that Secretary of Defense Mattis ordered AFRICOM and Special Operations Command to consider options for cutting the number of special operators rotating to Africa by 50 percent, and that Waldhauser has incorporated SOF cuts into his own plan.48 This may represent a departure from the cycle of crisis response that has thus far defined the U.S. experience
in North and West Africa—or it may indicate a greater reliance on unmanned options, with their accompanying posture requirements.

CONCLUSION

Cumulatively, contingency-generated posture changes in North and West Africa over the past six years have expanded access, inspired a modest growth in facilities construction and use, and increased the number of forces rotating through the region. The question is whether the whole is more strategic than the sum of its parts, or if it is instead
a Frankenstein posture, with functions disconnected from larger policy goals. The by, with, and through approach appears to serve as a compromise for making substantial changes to U.S. posture. AFRICOM has struggled with resource deficiencies since its inception—a condition that constrains U.S. freedom of action in a vast and dynamic theater, as recent incidents reveal. The desire for efficiencies and a low profile has driven the “light footprint” strategy,
at the expense of operational flexibility. Made consciously,

this choice can be justified and objectives adjusted. Stumbled into, it prevents the realization of strategic goals and runs unseen risks that can eventually endanger U.S. personnel.

General Waldhauser’s recent public pronouncements about planned reductions in special operations suggest that, once again, U.S. military presence in Africa is being de-emphasized for

the sake of conserving strategic assets. Secretary Mattis apparently intends to focus these resources on competitions in other theaters. The administration’s plans to withdraw troops signal that it prefers to decrease commitments and operational and tactical risk rather than increase investment in the North and West African theater. It remains to be seen whether buying down operational and tactical risk

Nigerien soldiers undergoing training from U.S. Marines.

Jacob Silberberg/Getty Images

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Building African Security Capacity, Not U.S. Bases

“Our cooperation builds security capacity and can help to reinforce our partners’ willingness to advance our shared interests.”52
– General David Rodriguez, AFRICOM commander, in March 2014

“Even with limited resources or capabilities, Africa Command aggressively works with partners and allies to execute our missions and mitigate risk. Moving forward, we continue to focus our decisive effort on building African partner capacity and will continue to work closely with the international and interagency partners to make small, wise investments which pay huge dividends in building stable and effective governments, the foundation for long-term security in Africa.”53
– General Thomas Waldhauser, AFRICOM commander, in March 2017

“Secretary Mattis has placed a significant emphasis on building and strengthening partnerships to both lessen the demand for U.S. forces and to ensure sustainable indigenous solutions to these problems. In the simplest terms, DoD seeks to work by, with, and through our partners in Africa to find African solutions to African problems.”54

– David Trachtenberg, acting under secretary of Defense for Policy, in December 2017

A History of Low-Cost, Light Footprint Approaches

“In Africa, we are to seek a light footprint and innovative approaches and low-cost approaches to achieving the United States’ security objectives.”49
– General Carter Ham, AFRICOM commander, in January 2013

“AFRICOM recognizes that Africa is a ‘‘low-cost, small- footprint’’ theater and that adequate resources to conduct every desired engagement, exercise, and other military-to- military activities will not be available.”50

– Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in February 2013

“With limited forces and infrastructure, we are working to maximize our adaptability and flexibility to respond effectively to crisis.”51
– General David Rodriguez, AFRICOM commander, in March 2015

increases overall risk from security threats in the region or instead reduces risk overall.

North and West Africa remains a contentious region,
where violent extremism, state fragility, and increasing competition among global state actors continue to affect U.S., allied, and partner interests. The United States must scale its resourcing to meet its policy objectives, but
these objectives must themselves be tailored to realistic threat assessments. Changes to U.S. presence affect U.S. preparation to face the next crisis. When that crisis hits, the cycle may simply resume.

Alice Hunt Friend is a senior fellow with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Jamie Wise is an intern with the CSIS International Security Program and an Eminence Fellow at the Ohio State University.

CSIS BRIEFS is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Photo: John Moore/Getty Images

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ENDNOTES

1. Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt, “U.S. Prepares to Reduce Troops and Shed Missions in Africa,” The New York Times, August 1, 2018, https://www.ny- times.com/2018/08/01/world/africa/us-withdraw-troops-africa.html/; Carley Petesch, “US Military in Africa Says Changes Made to Protect Troops,” Associ- ated Press, July 30, 2018, https://apnews.com/9a062805a6da46349ef638ad- 4b982a53/US-military-in-Africa-says-changes-made-to-protect-troops.

2. Michael J. Lostumbo, et al., “Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits,” RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA, 2013.

3. Lostumbo, et al., 31.

4. U.S. Congress, Senate, Select Committee on Intelligence, Review of the Ter- rorist Attacks on U.S. Facilities in Benghazi, Libya, September 11-12, 2012 together with Additional Views, 113th Cong., 2d sess., 2014, S. Rep. 113-134, https:// www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CRPT-113srpt134/pdf/CRPT-113srpt134.pdf.

5. U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Homeland Security and Gov- ernmental Affairs, Flashing Red: A Special Report on The Terrorist Attack at Benghazi, 112th Cong., 2d sess., 2012, https://fas.org/irp/congress/2012_rpt/ benghazi.pdf.

6. S. Rep. 113-134; U.S. Congress, House, Armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Majority Interim Report: Benghazi Investi- gation Update, 113th Cong., 2d sess., 2014, https://armedservices.house. gov/sites/republicans.armedservices.house.gov/files/wysiwyg_upload- ed/20140211-%20HASC%20O%26I%20Interim%20Report%20%28Ac- tions%20-%20Benghazi%29.pdf.

7. U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Armed Services, Report of the Committee on Armed Services House of Representatives on H.R. 4435 [How-
ard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year
2015] together with Additional Views
, 113th Cong., 2d sess., 2014, H. Rep. 113-446, https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/113th-con- gress/house-report/446/1?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22beng- hazi%22%5D%7D&r=53; Ben Watson, “After Benghazi, Specialized Crisis Response Teams Are Now the ‘New Normal’,” Defense One, May 20, 2014, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2014/05/after-benghazi-specialized- crisis-response-teams-are-now-new-normal/84877/.

8. U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Armed Services, Department of Defense’s Response to the Attack on U.S. Facilities in Benghazi, Libya, and the Find- ings of Its Internal Review Following the Attack: Hearing before the Committee on Armed Services United States Senate, 113th Cong., 2d sess., 2013, https://fas. org/irp/congress/2013_hr/benghazi.pdf.

9. The Posture of the U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command: Testimo- ny before the House Armed Services Committee, 113th Cong., 1st sess., (2013) (statement of General Carter Ham, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), https:// docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS00/20130315/100396/HHRG-113-AS00- Wstate-HamUSAG-20130315.pdf.

10. Alex Tiersky, Securing U.S. Diplomatic Facilities and Personnel Abroad: Legislative and Executive Branch Initiatives, CRS Report No. R43195 (Washing- ton, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2014), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/ R43195.pdf.

11. The Posture of the U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command: Testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, 113th Cong., 1st sess., (2013) (statement of General Carter Ham, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS00/20130315/100396/HHRG-113- AS00-Wstate-HamUSAG-20130315.pdf.

12. U.S. Africa Command 2015 Posture Statement: Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 114th Cong., 1st sess., (2015) (statement of Gen- eral David M. Rodriguez, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), http://www.africom. mil/media-room/documents/2015.

13. John Vandiver, “How Benghazi forced the military to adapt in Africa,” Stars and Stripes, June 28, 2016, https://www.stripes.com/news/how-beng- hazi-forced-the-military-to-adapt-in-africa-1.416650; U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Armed Services, Department of Defense’s Response to the Attack on U.S. Facilities in Benghazi, Libya, and the Findings of Its Internal Review Following the Attack: Hearing before the Committee on Armed Services United States Senate, 113th Cong., 2d sess., 2013, S. Hrg. 113-164, https://fas.org/ irp/congress/2013_hr/benghazi.pdf; U.S. Africa Command 2015 Posture State- ment: Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 114th Cong., 1st sess., (2015) (statement of General David M. Rodriguez, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), http://www.africom.mil/media-room/documents/2015.

14. Posture Hearing: Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 113th Cong., 2d sess., (2014) (statement of General David M. Rodriguez, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), http://www.africom.mil/media-room/docu- ments?Page=3.

15. Paul Belkin, France and U.S.-French Relations: In Brief, CRS Report No. R45167 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2018), https:// fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R45167.pdf.

16. U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Foreign Affairs, The Crisis in Mali: U.S. Interest and the International Response: Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Affairs House of Representatives, 113th Cong., 1st sess., 2013, H. Hrg. 113-3, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-113hhrg78949/pdf/CHRG- 113hhrg78949.pdf; George Little, “DOD Press Briefing with George Little from the Pentagon,” U.S. Department of Defense, January 29, 2013, http:// archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=5184.

17. H. Hrg. 113-3; Leon Panetta and Jose Pedro Aguiar-Branco, “Press Con- ference by Secretary Panetta and Minister Aguiar-Branco in Lisbon, Portu- gal,” U.S. Department of Defense, January 15, 2013, http://archive.defense. gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=5176.

18. H. Hrg. 113-3; U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Armed Services, Report to Accompany S. 2410 [Carl Levin National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015] on To Authorize Appropriations For Fiscal Year 2015 For Military Activities Of The Department Of Defense, For Military Construction, And For Defense Activities Of The Department Of Energy, To Prescribe Military Personnel Strengths For Such Fiscal Year, And For Other Purposes together with Additional Views, 113th Cong., 2d sess., 2014, S. Rep. 113-176, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CRPT-113srpt176/pdf/ CRPT-113srpt176.pdf.

19. The Posture of the U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command: Testi- mony before the House Armed Services Committee, 113th Cong., 1st sess., (2013) (statement of General Carter Ham, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), https://docs. house.gov/meetings/AS/AS00/20130315/100396/HHRG-113-AS00-Wstate- HamUSAG-20130315.pdf; David Lewis, “With Training and Partnerships, U.S. Military Treads Lightly in Africa,” Reuters, March 13, 2014, https://www.reuters. com/article/us-africa-usa-security-analysis/with-training-and-partnerships-u- s-military-treads-lightly-in-africa-idUSBREA2C0DL20140313; H. Hrg. 113-3; Letter, President Barack H. Obama to Speaker John A. Boehner, December 13, 2013, Compilation of Presidential Documents, DCPD-201300853, Office of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration, https://www. gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/DCPD-201300853/pdf/DCPD-201300853.pdf.

20. Craig Whitlock, “U.S. troops arrive in Niger to set up drone base,”
The Washington Post, February 22, 2013, https://www.washingtonpost. com/world/national-security/us-troops-arrive-in-niger-to-set-up-drone- base/2013/02/22/2a3348c0-7d01-11e2-9e84-3fbb5d2ef2a9_story.htm- l?utm_term=.f83e58de25a7; Craig Whitlock, “Drone base in Niger gives U.S. a strategic foothold in West Africa,” The Washington Post, March 21, 2013, https:// www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/drone-base-in-niger-gives- us-a-strategic-foothold-in-west-africa/2013/03/21/700ee8d0-9170-11e2-9c4d- 798c073d7ec8_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c74fbab943e1.

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21. Emma Farge, “U.S. building $100 million drone base in central Ni-
ger,”
Reuters, September 30, 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/ us-niger-security/u-s-building-100-million-drone-base-in-central-niger- idUSKCN12023L; “US builds drone base in Niger, crossroads of extremism fight,” Defense News, April 23, 2018, https://www.defensenews.com/un- manned/2018/04/23/us-builds-drone-base-in-niger-crossroads-of-extrem- ism-fight/.

22. “US builds drone base in Niger, crossroads of extremism fight,”
Defense News, April 23, 2018, https://www.defensenews.com/un- manned/2018/04/23/us-builds-drone-base-in-niger-crossroads-of-extrem- ism-fight/.

23. U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, #BringBackOur- Girls: Addressing the Threat of Boko Haram: Hearing before the Subcommittee on African Affairs, 113th Cong., 2d sess., 2014, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ CHRG-113shrg94293/pdf/CHRG-113shrg94293.pdf.

24. Lauren Ploch Blanchard, Nigeria’s 2015 Elections and the Boko Haram Crisis, CRS Report No. R43881 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2015), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43881.pdf; Office of the Press Secretary, “Fact Sheet: U.S. Efforts to Assist the Nigerian Government in its Fight against Boko Haram,” The White House, October 14, 2014, https:// obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/10/14/fact-sheet-us- efforts-assist-nigerian-government-its-fight-against-boko-.

25. Lauren Ploch Blanchard, Nigeria’s Boko Haram: Frequently Asked Questions, CRS Report No. R43558 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2016), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43558.pdf; Ernesto Londono, “U.S. deploys 80 troops to Chad to help find kidnapped Nigerian schoolgirls,” The Washington Post, May 21, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ national-security/us-deploys-80-military-personnel-to-chad/2014/05/21/ edd7d21a-e11d-11e3-810f-764fe508b82d_story.html?utm_ter- m=.20d7de0859a6; Chuck Hagel, “Secretary Of Defense Chuck Hagel Is Interviewed On PBS’s “Charlie Rose Show”,” U.S. Department of Defense, May 22, 2014, http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?Tran- scriptID=5436.

26. Chuck Hagel, “Secretary Of Defense Chuck Hagel Is Interviewed On PBS’s ‘Charlie Rose Show’,” U.S. Department of Defense, May 22, 2014, http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=5436.

27. Blanchard (2015); “Fact Sheet” (2014); Office of the Spokesper- son, “United States Support to Counter Boko Haram,” U.S. Department of State, February 11, 2016, https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ ps/2016/02/252399.htm.

28. Blanchard (2016)

29. John Kirby, “Department of Defense Press Briefing by Rear Adm. Kirby
in the Pentagon Briefing Room,” U.S. Department of Defense, June 27, 2014, http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=5455; Dan De Luce and Siobhan O’Grady, “U.S. to Boost Military Aid to Nigeria
for Boko Haram Fight,”
Foreign Policy, July 16, 2015, https://foreignpolicy. com/2015/07/16/u-s-to-boost-military-aid-to-nigeria-for-boko-haram-fight/.

30. U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Armed Services, Hearing To Receive Testimony On U.S. Central Command, U.S. Africa Command And U.S. Special Op- erations Command Programs And Budget In Review Of The Defense Authorization Request For Fiscal Year 2016 And The Future Years Defense Program, 114th Cong., 1st sess., 2015, S. Hrg. 114-204, https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/ media/doc/15-36%20-%203-26-15.pdf.

31. United States Africa Command 2015 Posture Statement: Testimony Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 114th Cong., 1st sess., (2015) (statement of General David M. Rodriguez, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), https://www. armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Rodriguez_03-26-15.pdf.

32. Missy Ryan, “U.S. establishes Libyan outposts with eye toward offensive against Islamic State,” The Washington Post, May 12, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-estab- lishes-libyan-outposts-with-eye-toward-offensive-against-islamic-

state/2016/05/12/11195d32-183c-11e6-9e16-2e5a123aac62_story.htm- l?utm_term=.77a593fef445; Andrew Tilghman, “US Conducts New Round of Airstrikes Against ISIS in Libya,” Defense News, August 1, 2016, https://www. defensenews.com/breaking-news/2016/08/01/us-conducts-new-round-of- airstrikes-against-isis-in-libya/; Christopher M. Blanchard, Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy, CRS Report No. RL33142 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2018), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33142.pdf.

33. Peter Cook, “Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook on
US Air Strike in Libya,” U.S. Department of Defense, August 1, 2016, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Arti- cle/881794/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-on-us-air- strike-in-libya/.

34. Tilghman (2016); Courtney Mabeus, “USS Wasp sailors, Marines, play role in U.S. airstrikes against Islamic State group in Libya,” The Virginian-Pilot, August 2, 2016, https://pilotonline.com/news/mili- tary/local/uss-wasp-sailors-marines-play-role-in-u-s-airstrikes/arti- cle_38bdb44b-1094-5e96-864d-ae3c35183c8c.html.

35. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs, “AFRICOM concludes Operation Odyssey Lightning,” U.S. Africa Command, December 20, 2016, http://www. africom.mil/media-room/pressrelease/28564/africom-concludes-opera- tion-odyssey-lightning.

36. U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Homeland Security, Terrorism in North Africa: An Examination of the Threat: Hearing before the Subcommittee
on Counterterrorism and Intelligence
, 115th Cong., 1st sess., 2017, H. Hrg. 115-11, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-115hhrg26909/pdf/CHRG- 115hhrg26909.pdf; U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Counterterrorism Efforts in Africa, 115th Cong., 1st sess., 2017, H. Hrg. 115-103, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-115hhrg27758/pdf/CHRG- 115hhrg27758.pdf.

37. Cook, August 1, 2016.

38. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017, Pub. L. No. 114- 328, 130 Stat. 2000 (2016), https://www.congress.gov/114/plaws/publ328/ PLAW-114publ328.pdf.

39. Peter Cook, “Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook on
US Air Strike in Libya,” U.S. Department of Defense, August 1, 2016, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Arti- cle/881794/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-on-us-air- strike-in-libya/.

40. Peter Cook, “Department of Defense Press Briefing by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook in the Pentagon Briefing Room,” U.S. Department of Defense, August 1, 2016, https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Tran- script-View/Article/882676/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-pen- tagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-in/.

41. Ryan (2016).

42. Blanchard (2018); Peter Cook, “Department of Defense Press Briefing with Press Secretary Peter Cook in the Press Briefing Room,” U.S. Department of Defense, August 25, 2016, https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/ Transcript-View/Article/927030/department-of-defense-press-briefing-with- press-secretary-peter-cook-in-the-pre/; Ash Carter and Michael Fallon, “Joint Press Conference by Secretary Carter and Secretary Michael Fallon,” U.S. Department of Defense, September 7, 2016, https://www.defense.gov/News/ Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/937142/joint-press-conference-by-sec- retary-carter-and-secretary-michael-fallon/; Ash Carter, “Media Availability with Secretary Carter in Aviano, Italy,” U.S. Department of Defense, Decem- ber 13, 2016, https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/ Article/1028979/media-availability-with-secretary-carter-in-aviano-ita-
ly/; Peter Cook, “Department of Defense Press Briefing by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook in the Pentagon Briefing Room,” U.S. Department of Defense, December 19, 2016, https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/ Transcript-View/Article/1033978/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by- pentagon-press-secretary-peter-cook-in/.

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43. U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Libya: Five Years After Ghadafi: Joint Hearing before the Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa and the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade, 114th Cong., 2d sess., 2016, H. Hrg. 114-238, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/ pkg/CHRG-114hhrg22863/pdf/CHRG-114hhrg22863.pdf; U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Foreign Relations, Libya’s Terrorist Descent: Causes and Solutions: Hearing before the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, 114th Cong., 2d sess., 2016, H. Hrg. 114-225, https://www.gpo. gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-114hhrg21676/pdf/CHRG-114hhrg21676.pdf; U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Armed Services, U.S. National Security Challenges and Ongoing Military Operations, 114th Cong., 2d sess., 2016, S. Hrg. 114-687, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-114shrg26841/pdf/ CHRG-114shrg26841.pdf.

44. United States Africa Command, “U.S. Conducts Precision Strike in Libya,” June 6, 2018, https://pilotonline.com/news/military/local/uss-wasp-sailors- marines-play-role-in-u-s-airstrikes/article_38bdb44b-1094-5e96-864d-ae- 3c35183c8c.html; United States Africa Command, “U.S. Conducts Precision Strike in Libya,” June 13, 2018, https://www.africom.mil/media-room/press- release/30917/u-s-conducts-precision-strike-in-libya.

45. Idrees Ali, “U.S. Air Strikes Kill 17 Islamic State Militants in Libya: U.S. Military,” Reuters, September 24, 2017 https://www.reuters.com/article/us- usa-libya-strike/u-s-air-strikes-kill-17-islamic-state-militants-in-libya-u-s- military-idUSKCN1BZ0P5.

46. See Alice Hunt Friend, “Critical Questions: DoD’s Report on the Inves- tigation into the 2017 Ambush in Niger,” CSIS, May 15, 2018, https://www. csis.org/analysis/dods-report-investigation-2017-ambush-niger.

47. Petesch (2018).

48. Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Eric Schmitt, “Pentagon May Cut Commando Forces in Africa in Major Military Review,” The New York Times, June 4, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/04/world/africa/commandos-africa-piv- ot-major-powers.html; Cooper and Schmitt (2018).

49. Carter Ham, “Presentation on the Role and Mission of United States Africa Command,” (presentation, Howard University, Washington DC, January 24, 2013), http://www.africom.mil/media-room/transcript/10243/ transcript-presentation-on-the-role-and-mission-of.

50. S. Hrg. 113-164.

51. U.S. Africa Command 2015 Posture Statement: Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 114th Cong., 1st sess., (2015) (statement of Gen- eral David M. Rodriguez, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), http://www.africom. mil/media-room/documents/2015.

52. Posture Hearing: Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 113th Cong., 2d sess., (2014) (statement of General David M. Rodriguez, Commander U.S. AFRICOM), http://www.africom.mil/media-room/docu- ments?Page=3.

53. U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Armed Services, Hearing to Receive Testimony on United States Central Command and United States Africa Com- mand, 115th Cong., 1st sess., 2017, https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/ imo/media/doc/17-18_03-09-17.pdf.

54. U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Counterterrorism Efforts in Africa, 115th Cong., 1st sess., 2017, H. Hrg. 115-103, https://www. gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-115hhrg27758/pdf/CHRG-115hhrg27758.pdf.

Securing peace after war

Tuesday, June 13, 2017, 00:01 by

Richard Galustian

Securing peace after war

On June 3, Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) gained its most significant strategic military victory in the southern part of the country which now means that almost two thirds of Libya is under Haftar’s control. This is a game changer.

The LNA entered the southern town of Waddan in Jufra and overran the area. The nearby towns including Sukna and, with local tribes’ cooperation, Jufra air force base was taken by the LNA. This is of tremendous strategic importance as Jufra AFB will give the LNA air striking coverage of the entire country particularly of western Libya and makes a direct land route, logistically and tactically, without significant obstacles, for them from east to west Libya when the route is reinforced by troops.

This victory could prove to be the most decisive one for the LNA since its creation by Haftar.

The LNA were up against Tripoli’s Government of National Accord militias that mostly comprised of the Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB), and disturbingly supported by Chadian mercenaries. But the LNA did have the support of the local populace.

The essentially Qatari-supported Benghazi Defense Brigade, the perpetrators of the massacre at the Le Brak air force base, are now classified as a terror organisation by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain.

The strategy of the LNA is to take Misrata and Tripoli with minimum deaths. It is expected that the tribes of the region will help minimise deaths and that within 30 days Tripoli will be liberated and some of the militias will cooperate.

Either the Government of National Accord and the Presidential Council accepts the recent ‘olive branch’ from Haftar or he must continue military objectives until he overcomes Tripoli itself, which many see as the last battle.

The Libyan National Army is in striking distance to conquer the remaining third of the country

For me, Haftar did extend an ‘olive branch’ compromising himself under certain conditions, to the US, the UK, EU, and the UN-backed GNA Prime Minister Fayez Serraj while simultaneously correctly pursuing, what is proving to be a very clever military strategy by overtaking the Jufra AFB in order to force a political solution before a military one. It looks like they didn’t accept the olive branch, but the tribes did.

Thus the LNA is in striking distance to conquer the remaining third of the country. Both Tripoli and Misrata must accept the LNA victory and oust the Muslim Brotherhood Sect and al-Qaeda members and sympathisers, and especially the Libyan Islamic Fighters Group (LIFG) who have been directly implicated in the recent Manchester suicide bombing.

Their alternative is the LNA campaign to eradicate terrorists will seize Tripoli and Sabratha with the help of some militias previously loyal to GNA and local tribes, that way ensuring minimum civilian casualties.

What needs to be done now is to ‘plan for the peace after the war’ which is something the US and UK spectacularly failed to do in Iraq.

At this point I introduce a rather controversial subject – Saif Gaddafi. The events in and around Jufra are connected to Libyan ‘militias’ in Tripoli releasing some Gaddafi-era nobles including Saif’s brother, Saadi and former prime minister Baghdadi from prison.

These developments are part of a new dynamic that seems to be entering the Libyan stage. The idea is to establish a Truth and Reconciliation Tribunal, similar to Mandela’s South Africa’s, in order to bring unity to the country.

Specific Libyan tribes are starting to back Saif Gaddafi and if they had the backing of HOR and Haftar, a new and hopefully peaceful attempt at unification may appear when the fighting stops.

When Saif was released last year, the question as to what role he could play in the war-torn country immediately became a legitimate and relevant subject.

Most of the tribes that supported his father, Muammar Gaddafi, see him as a redeemer and are willing to support his involvement in any political process that helps to bring about national reconciliation.

Haftar is close to the elders of the Warfalla tribe.

The Warfalla tribe is the biggest tribe in Libya located mainly in the Bani Walid and Sirte area, along with the Warshfana tribe and both tribes are against extremists and many are sympathetic to Saif Gaddafi.

Importantly, the tribes believe that Saif can help reach an accommodation with Libyan parties in a Mandela-style commission/tribunal to forgive or prosecute, where appropriate, crimes committed pre- and post-2011.

The LNA is winning and is popular, while simultaneously it has to be said that Saif is also becoming popular among a large segment of the Libyan people.

Any planned solution to a post-civil war Libya must be considered even one involving a Gaddafi family member.

Either way, the civil war seems to be now all but over and won by the LNA.

Richard Galustian is a British political and security advisor based in MENA countries for nearly 40 years.

Canada's new Defence Plan

Defence plan calls for cyber and drone attacks to meet 21st century threats

by Mike Blanchfield, The Canadian Press

Posted Jun 7, 2017 12:39 pm EDT

OTTAWA – Canada will add hundreds of new elite special forces commandos, wage offensive cyber warfare attacks and deploy armed drones to international battlefields as part of its military response to new global security threats.

The new defence review identifies a wide range of harrowing and borderless threats, including the “grey zone” of hybrid warfare, ever-present terrorism and climate change.

Some of Canada’s military operations will include government-sanctioned cyber attacks and drone strikes on foreign threats, and an increased role for special forces in overseas missions.

The review says this new, elite and futuristic approach to war fighting will respect domestic and international laws.

However, the very nature of the cloak of secrecy that envelops almost all of Canada’s special forces, as well as the active expansion of fighting in cyberspace will likely raise questions about transparency and civil liberties.

The policy increases the ranks of special forces by 605 people. They will get new airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance tools.

The special forces are made up of elite JTF-2 commandos and the Joint Incident Response Unit, which is responsible for responding to nuclear, chemical and biological attacks, a contingent of 2,000 in all.

There are about 200 special forces commandos deployed in northern Iraq on a mission focused mainly on training Kurdish fighters.

However, Canadian special forces have engaged in gun battles in Iraq as they’ve ventured onto the battlefield for training.

And in March, the government revealed that some of the special forces took part in the battle to reclaim the Iraqi city of Mosul from ISIL when an undisclosed number of them accompanied Iraqi forces in the city.

The review says cyberspace is becoming an increasingly hostile place with an increase of state and non-state actors posing threats, and concludes that “a purely defensive cyber posture is not sufficient.”

The review says the military will launch “active cyber operations against potential adversaries in the context of government authorized military missions.”

While non-state actors — terrorists — proliferate and exploit cyberspace, the review says, “the most sophisticated cyber threats come from the intelligence and military services of foreign states.”

The review doesn’t name specific countries, but highlights the threat posed by “hybrid war,” something associated with Russia and accusations it has tried to influence elections in foreign countries, notably the last American presidential contest that brought Donald Trump to power.

“Hybrid methods are frequently used to undermine the credibility and legitimacy of a national government or international alliance,” the review said. “By staying in the fog of the grey zone, states can influence events in their favour without triggering outright armed conflict.”

That presents challenges for how Canada and its allies should respond, notably the application of NATO’s Article 5 that says an attack on one member country constitutes an attack on all 28 countries in the alliance.

The use of armed, unmanned drone aircraft will also become a feature of future Canadian Forces operations, the review predicts, as Canada faces new threats from “weaponized” drones.

Climate change is also singled out as threat, one which knows no borders, because of its ability to force mass migrations of people, which can create humanitarian crises and spark fights for scarce resources.

Al Shabab's Resurgence

Al Shabab’s Resurgence

Why Its Campaign of Terror Will Likely Accelerate

By Joshua Meservey

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/joshua-meservey

Al Shabab, the al Qaeda affiliate that has bedeviled the East African country of Somalia for a decade, is currently enjoying its most successful run of attacks in years against the Somali government. Since mid-August alone, the group has killed a number of high-ranking officials, including a senior intelligence officer, a district commissioner, and a general in the national army. Its intensified assault on the government comes in the middle of an electoral process that inaugurated a new parliament in December and is scheduled to bring a new president this month.

Disrupting the electoral process is consistent with an old al Shabab strategy of discrediting any competing sources of authority and legitimacy. However, something new is afoot as well: al Shabab has escalated its attacks in the north of Somalia this year, outside its preferred southern area of operations. The group’s history and ideology suggest the campaign is likely to accelerate once the electoral process finishes. There are a number of worrisome consequences of a northward lunge by al Shabab, the worst of which would be a renewal of ties with the Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), historically the al Qaeda affiliate most focused on attacking the United States.

The change in al Shabab’s previously desultory approach to the north became clear in March 2016, when it landed as many as 600 fighters on the shores of the semiautonomous northern region of Puntland. The ultimately ill-fated campaign was an unprecedented investment of manpower outside al Shabab’s southern stronghold, where it once had dominion over nearly a third of the country. Its presence in the north had previously been mostly confined to a small militia based in the Galgala Mountains region.

The Puntland attack was just the start. In March and April, Puntland security services broke up an al Shabab cell in Garowe, and al Shabab attacked the towns of Beledweyne, Bosaso, Galkayo, and Garad—even briefly capturing the latter—all of which are outside the area in which the group usually operates. In late November, the group killed four pro-government soldiers with a roadside bomb near Bosaso, and in August it launched the deadliest terror attack ever in Puntland, when two suicide car bombs ripped into local government buildings in Galkayo, killing nearly 30 and wounding almost 90 people.

Al Shabab’s northward play makes sense for several reasons. It is being squeezed in the south by the various forces arrayed against it, and could be looking for an escape valve. Al Shabab is in no danger of being militarily defeated in the south anytime soon, but it is natural for such a canny group to hedge its bets.

There is also the matter of Abdiqadir Mumin, the senior al Shabab religious leader based in Puntland, who declared allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS) along with a small number of fighters in October 2015. Despite repeated overtures from ISIS, the rest of al Shabab has remained fiercely loyal to al Qaeda, hunting down anyone within its ranks suspected of ISIS sympathies. Mumin’s band emerged from hiding in October to seize Qandala, a port town in Puntland, for over a month. Al Shabab wants him dead, a task that will require a stronger presence in the area.

STAVE OFF A REUNION

The most concerning consequence of al Shabab moving north, however, would be any renewal of its friendship with AQAP. Although the details are unclear, Al Shabab’s links with its associates across the Gulf of Aden extend back to at least 2010. In 2011, the United States captured a high-ranking al Shabab operative named Ahmed Warsame as he was leaving Yemen in a skiff. Warsame had close links with Anwar al-Awlaki, an American terrorist who was AQAP’s most senior and effective propagandist. In 2012, al Shabab reportedly sent 300 fighters to receive training and to fight with AQAP in its war against the Yemeni government. The increasing sophistication over the years of al Shabab’s explosives may be the fruit of that collaboration.

The most concerning consequence of al Shabab moving north would be any renewal of its friendship with AQAP.

The relationship between al Shabab and AQAP appears to have weakened after both groups suffered significant military setbacks in their respective countries. However, the civil war between Iranian-backed Houthi rebels and a Saudi-led military coalition that has gripped Yemen since 2015 has been a boon for AQAP. It took advantage of the chaos to rapidly expand, at one point controlling nearly 400 miles of Yemeni coastline and the country’s third-largest port, Makalla, from which it derived as much as $2 million per day in taxes. At that time, it also freed more than 100 of its jailed members—including senior leader Khaled Batarfi—and seized huge amounts of weaponry from a government depot.

The Saudi-led coalition eventually drove AQAP from Makalla, and it has lost ground in other parts of the country as well. Yet it still controls significant chunks of Yemen, and the group’s long-term prospects are good as the stalemated civil war ensures the sort of violent instability off of which AQAP feeds. The Yemeni group is likely to remain an attractive partner for al Shabab for the foreseeable future.

A renewed relationship between al Shabab and AQAP would make it easier to move materiel and men back and forth and for each group to share its expertise with the other. This is the sort of cooperation that has strengthened terror organizations throughout the world. Boko Haram in West Africa (now an ISIS affiliate), for example, began as an unremarkable militia. Yet the training that some of its fighters received from al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al Shabab helped it transform into one of the world’s deadliest terrorist organizations that routinely humiliated the Nigerian army and conquered chunks of Northeast Nigeria.

A longer-term possibility is that a stronger friendship between AQAP and al Shabab could influence the latter to invest some of its energies into global jihad. Al Shabab has historically shown little interest in attacking what al Qaeda dubbed the Far Enemy, apart from occasionally and unsuccessfully calling for lone-wolf attacks in the United States. It is for now preoccupied with fighting a regional war, and there is no indication it is rethinking its strategy.

Yet elements of al Shabab’s leadership have always been sympathetic to internationalist terrorist goals, and many of its founders fought in the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan. Al Shabab’s steadfast loyalty to al Qaeda signals at least tacit acceptance of the latter’s internationally focused brand of terrorism. Attacking Western targets, specifically the United States, has been a pillar of al Qaeda’s strategy since the early 1990s.

Al Qaeda generally struggles to get its affiliates to look beyond their local wars, yet AQAP has adopted al Qaeda’s internationalism with gusto. In 2009, the group just missed killing the deputy interior minister of Saudi Arabia in Jeddah using a man with explosives hidden in his body. AQAP was behind failed attacks on airlines bound for the United States in 2009 and 2010, as well as the January 2015 attack on the offices of Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris.

It is likely no coincidence that in 2011 when al Shabab was closer to AQAP than it is now, at least several al Shabab leaders were plotting attacks against Europe. The group has extensive networks throughout East Africa, and there are many inviting Western targets there should al Shabab decide to prioritize a broader jihad. Al Shabab also once attracted the support of scores of Europeans and Americans. The longer the feckless Somali government disappoints its citizens and the longer foreign troops fighting al Shabab remain in Somalia, the more the level of appeal al Shabab holds for foreign fighters is likely to rebound. That would open up opportunities for al Shabab to directly strike Western countries, something beyond its current capacity.

AQAP and al Shabab do not appear to have yet rebuilt ties, and al Shabab is preoccupied with disrupting Somalia’s electoral process. Expect al Shabab’s northern activities to continue, however, once the distraction of the electoral process has faded, and particularly if AQAP continues to revive. Now is the best time to nip a reunion in the bud, which will require vigilance and determination in both Somalia and Yemen.

Canadian Army Peacekeeping Mission to Africa

Canadian Army mission in Africa 'coming soon,' says defence chief

Canada's new top soldier says he has enough soldiers for peacekeeping, Iraq, Ukraine and NATO missions

By Murray Brewster, CBC News Posted: Jul 14, 2016 5:16 PM ET Last Updated: Jul 14, 2016 5:16 PM ET

Canada's new top soldier says the army has enough troops to carry out missions in Iraq, Ukraine, Latvia and whatever peacekeeping assignments the new Liberal government deems necessary.The statement by Lt.-Gen. Paul Wynnyk — who officially took over as commander of the Canadian Army on Thursday — will be put to the test very soon, as the country's most senior military commander said a new deployment to Africa was imminent.In a conference call Wednesday, Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan publicly confirmed the Liberal government is considering participation in a number of United Nations peacekeeping missions. But just where and when a new deployment will occur is still being decided, he said.Gen. Jonathan Vance told dignitaries at the rain-soaked change of command ceremony on Parliament Hill that coming "very soon" there will be a capacity-building mission in Africa.'I don't agree that we don't have troops to undertake the missions we're looking at right now'- Lt.-Gen. Paul Wynnyk, new commander of the Canadian ArmyThe burgeoning number of deployments, either ongoing or planned, is not a problem, says Wynnyk, who until recently was head of military intelligence."If and when the government decides they would like us to deploy somewhere, the Canadian Army stands ready to deploy troops to that particular theatre."At the moment, the military has an assigned strength of 68,000 full-time members and 27,000 part-timers or reservists.

 

 

Troops headed to Mali?

There are any number of trouble spots in Africa where Canadian peacekeepers could be sent, but Mali is the one mentioned most often.A sizable portion of the country was overrun by Islamic extremists in early 2014, prompting the French government to launch a short, but successful campaign to drive militants out of the territory they had captured.Canada, at the time, played a supporting role with heavy-lift transports to get French military equipment into the western African nation.Documents obtained by CBC News under Access to Information legislation show the French government of Francois Hollande pressured the former Conservative government to take a major role in the UN peacekeeping mission that followed France's intervention in Mali.The request was discussed in June 2015 between former defence minister Jason Kenney and his French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian, according to the briefing notes.Part of the reason France was asking for the assistance is because of the high number of troops deployed domestically due to recent terror attacks.At the time of the call, up to 7,000 French soldiers have been tied down on home soil, putting "a significant strain" on the country's military.The Conservatives managed to stick handle around the request, partly because a peacekeeping mission in Mali would be considered a hazardous, if not dangerous, assignment, as UN forces have been the target of attacks, including ambushes and mortar fire.

Ethiopia’s outsized importance to African security

AnnaNewby | April29,20161:45pm Brookings institute

Ethiopia’s outsized importance to African security

Is Ethiopia a rising star in Africa? By some measures, yes: As the second most-populous country on the continent (after Nigeria), it has achieved GDP growth rates above 10 percent for a decade. It is home to the African Union headquarters and a key U.S. ally in the fight against al-Shabab militants in Somalia and in counterterrorism efforts more broadly. In a region where sectarian and ethnic tensions have a tendency to flare up, Ethiopia has achieved remarkable social cohesion. All this, after suffering decades of conflict, drought, famine, and poverty, among other challenges.

At the same time, the government—led by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition since 1991—has been criticized for cracking down on free speech, the press, and critics. And while Ethiopia is unlikely to re-experience famine, an ongoing drought there remains a major concern.

These and other issues were the topics of conversation at a recent Brookings event, hosted by the Africa Security Initiative. Brookings Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence Michael O’Hanlon opened the conversation by commenting that while we don’t always hear a lot about Ethiopia in the West—often drowned out by troubling developments in Somalia, Nigeria, and the Great Lakes region—it is “one of the most important countries on the continent by almost any measure.” As Africa’s oldest independent country, it has a unique history—and along with it, a unique set of assets and challenges.

The security situation in Ethiopia and how it relates to the broader ...

The security situation in Ethiopia and how it relates to the broader region

Cohesion and tension

Terrence Lyons, associate professor in the School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University, acknowledged that Ethiopia is a “tough story” domestically—with a powerful single party that won 100 percent of seats in Parliament in the last election, the Ethiopian government has its share of authoritarian tendencies. At the same time, the governing EPRDF coalition has managed a series of tough political crises (not necessarily through democratic means, he said in response to a question from the audience), and the economy has grown at an incredible pace for the last decade. That said, growth will slow eventually, meaning the government will have fewer resources and jobs to distribute—that will require deft management down the road.

While there is generally peaceful coexistence between Muslims and Christians in the country, government crackdowns have at times exacerbated tensions: Last August, for example, a group of 18 Muslims was jailed under controversial anti-terrorism laws after protesting against the government three years ago. A recent plan to expand the capital of Addis Ababa into a region occupied by the Oromo people also fueled tensions, as did a cross-border cattle raid this month in which 200 people died and 100 children were kidnapped.

Abye Assefa, associate professor at St. Lawrence University, highlighted Ethiopia’s ethnic and religious diversity: The largest ethnic group in the country, Oromo people, comprise about 35 percent of the population, with the rest divided among a variety of ethnic groups; and Ethiopians are roughly two-thirds Christian and one-third Muslim. In spite of this diversity, Abye said that there is a strong sense of an

Ethiopian identity—a product, he contended, of its rich civilizational history. The central government has implemented a system of ethnic federalism that has worked well, in his view—though he acknowledged that there’s debate over whether to push for closer unification in the country or allow for further devolution. Related are challenges regarding land: While land is in some sense treated as a public good (the government owns much of it), it is also leased to private investors. Is land a commodity in Ethiopia? It’s not clear, and that’s the source of some social, economic, and political tensions.

On democracy and governance issues, Assefa expressed that while the government has its shortcomings (including the lack of an independent judiciary, among others), Ethiopian media and civil society aren’t always engaged in constructive dialogue themselves (it can be “open warfare,” he said). Across Ethiopian political culture, Assefa said, there is a “my way or the highway”-type attitude, which he argued is not constructive for improving politics. Lyons, in response, pointed out that Ethiopia will be brittle as long as it restricts free expression—a more vibrant society will strengthen Ethiopia as it continues to face new stresses.

Lyons also highlighted the severity of Ethiopia’s drought, with about 10 million people currently in need of food assistance. That said, the government has moved efficiently to respond to citizens’ needs to date, and there is no evidence that this drought will bring famine, as occurred in Ethiopia in the 1980s.

Regional security

Lyons called Ethiopia an “irreplaceable center of gravity” for the Horn of Africa. Possessing the most effective military in the region, he said that whether the region is stable or unstable depends largely on Ethiopia. Ethiopian troops are deeply involved in peace operations in Somalia and its officials are key to ongoing peace talks in South Sudan. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is home to refugees from throughout the neighborhood, particularly Somalia, Eritrea, and South Sudan.

Assefa stressed that Ethiopia is a remarkably safe place itself, in the context of its neighborhood. He added that rather than use terms like “failed state”—which in his view is a way for international actors to delegitimize certain states—we should examine how states operate within their international environment.

All the panelists agreed that there are good reasons for Ethiopia to cooperate with the United States on security issues.